UK Market Monitor Q1 2024

Real and nominal Gilt yields both increased over the quarter. Real yields averaged an increase of circa 15 bps, while nominal yields increased by circa 30bps. This led to a commensurately higher break-even inflation rate.

Inflation prints continued to decline over the quarter following the trend of the previous quarter. The YoY RPI rate at the end of March was 4.3%, while the CPI rate was 3.2%. Over the quarter the market lowered its expectation for the number of Bank of England base rate cuts in 2024. This is due to the receding probability of rates being cut by the US Federal reserve. However, we anticipate that UK rate cuts are still likely this year as inflation returns closer to target.

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UK Market Monitor Q3 2025

A broadly parallel upward shift of approximately 20 basis points is evident across the nominal gilts curve, with yields reaching multi-year highs.

UK Market Monitor Q2 2025

The short-term nominal curve shows a decrease in yields for tenors under 20 years, while remaining relatively flat at the longer end of the curve.