UK Market Monitor Q4 2025

Over the quarter, the nominal gilt curve has shifted down by around 25 basis points across the medium to longer maturities.

The real yields curve has also moved in the same direction, albeit by around 20 basis points.

Reported inflation has fallen over the quarter with year-on-year CPI falling from 3.8% in September to 3.4% in December and RPI falling from 4.5% in September to 4.2% in December. With lower inflation expected, the BoE reduced rates by 25bps to 3.75% in December, and the market expects two further 25 basis point cuts in 2026.

Credit spreads (versus swaps) fell over the quarter, although there was some volatility mid November. AA-rated spreads closed 2025 just below 100 basis points, A-rated slightly below 130, and BBB-rated just above 160 basis points.

Click to view document

More News

UK Market Monitor Q1 2026

Over the quarter, the nominal gilt curve has shifted up by around 50 basis points (0.50%) on average across all maturities.

UK Market Monitor Q3 2025

A broadly parallel upward shift of approximately 20 basis points is evident across the nominal gilts curve, with yields reaching multi-year highs.

This is a financial promotion issued by Alpha Real Capital LLP (“AlphaReal”), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority ('FCA') FRN: 436048, registered address: 80 Strand, London WC2R 0DT. This website is neither directed at nor intended for investors in the United States of America. The price and value of investments and the income from them may rise or fall and may be affected by changes in rates of exchange and market conditions. An investor may not receive back the amount initially invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Alpha Real Capital LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Regulatory Information

Website Disclaimer

HSEQ Policy

Modern Slavery Statement

Complaints Policy

Stewardship Code

Privacy Policy

AlphaReal 2026

Linkedin