UK Market Monitor Q4 2024

Nominal and real gilt yields have substantially increased over Q4 2024. The nominal curve has increased by an average of c50bps, and the real curve by an average c44bps.

Year on year RPI inflation rose over the quarter to 3.4% (from 2.7% at the beginning of the quarter) and the CPI index rose to 2.3% (from 1.7% at the beginning of the quarter).

Market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 have substantially reduced. The market is now expecting only two rate cuts in the coming year, from the current 4.75% level to 4.25%. Spreads versus swaps for non-financial corporate bonds marginally decreased over the quarter, moving 5 to 8 bps lower across the credit rating spectrum.

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UK Market Monitor Q2 2026

Over the quarter, the nominal gilt yield curve shifted lower, falling by approximately 15 basis points (bps) at the short end and around 5bps at the long end.

UK Market Monitor Q1 2026

Over the quarter, the nominal gilt curve has shifted up by around 50 basis points (0.50%) on average across all maturities.

UK Market Monitor Q4 2025

Over the quarter, the nominal gilt curve has shifted down by around 25 basis points across the medium to longer maturities.

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