The reduction was more pronounced at shorter maturities for both curves. Year on year inflation continues to fall and September RPI inflation came in at 1.7% while RPI inflation stood at 2.7%. Interest rate cuts are expected by the market, with a total 50bps cut expected over the two Bank of England meetings to year end. Over the quarter, non-financials corporate credit spreads have increased modestly albeit remaining at historic lows (note the z-spread shown is versus swaps).

UK Market Monitor Q4 2025
Over the quarter, the nominal gilt curve has shifted down by around 25 basis points across the medium to longer maturities.


