UK Market Monitor Q2 2025

The short-term nominal curve shows a decrease in yields for tenors under 20 years, while remaining relatively flat at the longer end of the curve.

In contrast, the yield for the real curve has shifted upwards across all tenors by 5-15bps. Year-on-year inflation prints increased this quarter with CPI increasing 1%pt from 2.6% in March to 3.6% in June and RPI increasing 1.2%pt from 3.2% to 4.4% over the same period. Market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 have decreased from the previous quarter. Credit spreads have decreased from the end of Q1 to Q2 by 15-20 basis points across AA, A, BBB ratings.

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UK Market Monitor Q4 2025

Over the quarter, the nominal gilt curve has shifted down by around 25 basis points across the medium to longer maturities.

UK Market Monitor Q3 2025

A broadly parallel upward shift of approximately 20 basis points is evident across the nominal gilts curve, with yields reaching multi-year highs.