In contrast, the yield for the real curve has shifted upwards across all tenors by 5-15bps. Year-on-year inflation prints increased this quarter with CPI increasing 1%pt from 2.6% in March to 3.6% in June and RPI increasing 1.2%pt from 3.2% to 4.4% over the same period. Market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 have decreased from the previous quarter. Credit spreads have decreased from the end of Q1 to Q2 by 15-20 basis points across AA, A, BBB ratings.

UK Market Monitor Q4 2025
Over the quarter, the nominal gilt curve has shifted down by around 25 basis points across the medium to longer maturities.


