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UK Market Monitor Q1 2025

The shape of nominal and real gilt yields has shifted over the past quarter. The short-term nominal curve shows a decrease in yields for tenors under 7 years, while yields for longer tenors have increased by 15-20 basis points.

Similarly, real yields have decreased for tenors below 5 years and increased by 10-20 basis points for longer tenors.

Year-on-year RPI and CPI have been falling since the significant increase in January. CPI has decreased to 2.6% from the calendar high of 3% in January, and RPI has decreased to 3.2% from the January high of 3.6%.

Market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 have increased from the previous quarter, with a greater than 50% chance of four or more 25bps cuts by the end of the calendar year.

Credit spreads continue to widen across all ratings, with a uniform increase of 15-20 basis points during 2025.

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