UK Market Monitor Q1 2025

The shape of nominal and real gilt yields has shifted over the past quarter. The short-term nominal curve shows a decrease in yields for tenors under 7 years, while yields for longer tenors have increased by 15-20 basis points.

Similarly, real yields have decreased for tenors below 5 years and increased by 10-20 basis points for longer tenors.

Year-on-year RPI and CPI have been falling since the significant increase in January. CPI has decreased to 2.6% from the calendar high of 3% in January, and RPI has decreased to 3.2% from the January high of 3.6%.

Market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 have increased from the previous quarter, with a greater than 50% chance of four or more 25bps cuts by the end of the calendar year.

Credit spreads continue to widen across all ratings, with a uniform increase of 15-20 basis points during 2025.

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UK Market Monitor Q1 2026

Over the quarter, the nominal gilt curve has shifted up by around 50 basis points (0.50%) on average across all maturities.

UK Market Monitor Q4 2025

Over the quarter, the nominal gilt curve has shifted down by around 25 basis points across the medium to longer maturities.

UK Market Monitor Q3 2025

A broadly parallel upward shift of approximately 20 basis points is evident across the nominal gilts curve, with yields reaching multi-year highs.